Fun with Math.

The NHL’s initial CBA proposal called for players to receive 46% of a newly defined HRR.  It was reported by multiple sources the new definition meant the actual amount worked out to 43% of the current HRR definition.  Based on some quick math, this tells us the NHL’s new definition would place HRR at roughly $3 billion.

Obviously, this is based on current NHL projections for the 2012-13 season and depending on which items the owners want removed from HRR the amount could change.  Realistically, we could expect the HRR projection to be in the $2.9-3.0 billion range.

Based on reports from just about everyone, the PA’s share for 2012-13 would be 51.6% and the salary cap would be $58 million.  Based on a $3 billion HRR, this would place the midpoint at $51.6 million, which places the cap only $6.4 million above the midpoint.  If the NHL wanted to maintain the current +/-$8 million the midpoint would be $50 million (assuming no 5% escalator), creating an HRR of $2.9 billion. (s/t to @JJfromKansas for highlighting player share & salary cap didn’t match the current +$8 million)

What does this mean?  The owners and players are still not close in terms of sharing revenue.  However, the NHL’s offer to de-link salaries from revenue for a few years and gradually ease in to a 50% player share is a positive sign.  I believe the one issue Donald Fehr will not allow the PA to concede is on salary rollbacks and the latest NHL proposal seems to take that into account.  Assuming an amnesty clause happens, only a few teams would find themselves above the cap and needing to make a trade.  The NHL made an initial offer and the PA subsequently made an alternative offer.  It appears this offer uses elements of both proposals, which is a good sign for how talks are progressing.

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